Monday, March 9, 2009

Derby Top 10

It was a telling weekend with the Gotham and Santa Anita Oaks, so here's this week's installment of the Derby Top 10. A couple of horses have dropped off the list (most notably Stardom Bound, who will stick with the girls for now). With the Rebel and San Felipe coming up this weekend, it's likely to change a lot more. 

Agree with the list? Disagree? Comment or find me on Twitter and share your own picks. 

1. Old Fashioned (Unbridled's Song-Collect Call, by Meadowlake): Stays atop this list for week two. Undefeated and already owns a win at nine furlongs; has progressed solidly from two to three. Training sharply for the Rebel, where he should answer some of those distance questions.

2. The Pamplemousse (Kafwain-Comfort Zone, by Rubiano): Physically impressive specimen is dangerous when left alone on the lead, but proved he could re-break and win under slight pressure in the Sham. Waiting to see what happens when someone really looks him in the eye.

3. Friesan Fire (AP Indy-Bollinger, by Dehere): It says something about this year's bunch when this dual stakeswinner (LeComte and Risen Star) is second fiddle in his own barn. He's progressing steadily with each start, and the Louisiana Derby should be a good class test.

4. Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker-Star of goshen, by Lord At War): Moving him up because of the way he’s training, and because recent stakes results have really flattered him. Followed gutty win in the Futurity with a workmanlike effort in the Robert B. Lewis; will stretch out in the San Felipe.

5. Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song-Secret Status, by AP Indy): I can't believe I'm putting a two-start allowance winner over several multiple stakeswinners, but that's how highly I think of him. Has a wonderful turn of foot and handled adversity well in his second start. Says a lot about Todd Pletcher's confidence in him that he'll be rolling the dice earnings-wise by using a single stakes prep.

6. I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even-Meguial, by Roy): Made an impressive turnaround in his first start over natural dirt, making a closely matched field look like easy pickings in the Gotham. Versatile sort can win from on or off the pace, and handled the slop well, too.

7. Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride-Crownette, by Seattle Slew): Good third in the Futurity then won the California Derby and El Camino while stretching out a bit more each time. Don't think he's a world beater, but he's a useful sort and bred to get even more distance.

8. Beethoven (Sky Mesa-Moonlight Sonata, by Carson City): Still think he's going to be noticed in the Triple Crown series, but just hasn't lived up to the billing yet. Did close strongly against a speed bias in the Fountain of Youth.

9. Quality Road (Elusive Quality-Kobla, by Strawberry Road): Fountain of Youth was one of the better performances we've seen so far this year. Waiting to see if he moves forward in his next or if he's just a class miler.

10. Patena (Seeking the Gold-Handpainted, by AP Indy): Second choice for Louisiana Derby is catching the eye with some solid works. Hasn’t exactly sparkled, and was defeated by Friesan Fire last out in the LeComte, but does own a win at a mile and a sixteenth (in last December’s Display Stakes).

On the radar: Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow-Sweet Damsel, by Turkoman), the full brother to Colonel John, closed strongly to pick up third in the Sham and appears primed to move forward. Silver City (Unbridled's Song-Proposal, by Mt Livermore) was a game second in the Southwest and will tackle Old Fashioned again in the Rebel. Imperial Council (Empire Maker-Jaramar Rain, by Thunder Gulch) made a nice late move to take third in the Gotham. Haynesfield (Speightstown-Nothing Special, by Tejabo) ran poorly in the Gotham, but planning to keep an eye on this dual stakeswinner anyway.

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